India's three-wheeler exports, which have been on a downhill trajectory over the past few years, are showing no signs of recovery in FY25, with key markets like Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nigeria, and Egypt witnessing subdued demand. In May, the country's exports plummeted 11.3 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y).
'Valuations of midcaps and smallcaps have reached very high levels, and hence to that extent leave little margin of safety.'
Standard & Poor's has revised the outlook on India's 'BB' long-term foreign currency rating from negative to stable, reflecting the improving external finances.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday lowered India's economic growth projection for the current fiscal to 5.9 per cent from 6.1 per cent earlier. Yet India will continue to be the fastest-growing economy in the world. In its annual World Economic Outlook, IMF also lowered the forecast for 2024-25 fiscal (April 2024 to March 2025) to 6.3 per cent from the 6.8 per cent it had predicted in January this year. The growth rate of 5.9 per cent in the 2023-24 fiscal compares to an estimated 6.8 per cent in the previous year.
Increasing female economic participation by ensuring equal work opportunities for women and expanding access to education and skills training for female entrepreneurs.
Moody's Investors Service on Monday said it has assigned a first-time B3 corporate family rating (CFR) to ANI Technologies, which operates ride hailing service Ola. Moody's CFRs are opinions of a corporate family's ability to honour all of its financial obligations. It has also assigned a B3 rating to the company's proposed senior secured term loan.
Tactical investors should have an investment horizon of around six months to one year, long-term investors should stick around for 10 years or more.
With economic activity still to reach pre-pandemic levels, the RBI may slow down the pace of rate hikes until next year to quell soaring inflation while supporting growth, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) says in its latest report. The Manila-based multilateral funding agency has raised the inflation forecast for the current fiscal year ending in March 2023 to 6.7 per cent from its earlier projection of 5.8 per cent. For the next fiscal year too, the forecast has been revised upwards to 5.8 per cent from 5 per cent earlier.
Indian growth in the rest of this fiscal year and next will be propelled by robust domestic consumption as consumer confidence improves, and by investment, including large increases in government capital expenditure, according to the Asian Development Outlook September 2023. "As slowing exports could foment headwinds for the economy, and erratic rainfall patterns are likely to undermine agricultural output, the growth forecast for FY2023 is revised down marginally to 6.3 per cent," ADB said.
Fitch Ratings on Wednesday said India's high fiscal deficit would pose a challenge in lowering the debt to GDP ratio, which is expected to rise above 90 per cent in the next five years. It said India entered the pandemic with little fiscal headroom from a rating perspective. Its general government debt/GDP ratio stood at 72 per cent in 2019, against a median of 42 per cent for 'BBB' rated peers.
Moody's expects that India will record the GDP growth of around 7.5 per cent in 2015 and 2016.
As a panel of senior ministers deliberates on the need to review curbs on exports of some rice varieties, data shows that since outbound shipments saw restrictions in July-August last year, the non-basmati segment has suffered more than basmati exports. Sources said the panel is expected to soon deliberate on a few suggestions to ease the export curbs on some rice varieties due to higher-than-required stocks in the central pool. The panel, some observers feel, may also postpone the decision to ease the export curbs till a firm picture emerges on the latest kharif paddy sowing.
Days after Moody's cut its gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for financial year 2022-23 (FY23) after the official GDP print for the June quarter came in lower than expectations, the global ratings agency said it would maintain its long-term sovereign debt credit rating and outlook on Asia's third-largest economy. "The credit profile of India reflects key strengths, including its large and diversified economy with high growth potential, a relatively strong external position, and a stable domestic financing base for government debt," Moody's said on Tuesday. "We do not expect rising challenges to the global economy, including the impact of the Russia-Ukraine military conflict, higher inflation, and the tightening financial conditions on the back of policy tightening, to derail India's ongoing recovery from the pandemic in 2022 and 2023," it said.
Rating agency Fitch Ratings today said there is more pain in store for India's infrastructure projects, which are already reeling under delays and regulatory hurdles, due to sector specific stresses and macroeconomic challenges.
The mutual fund (MF) industry had an action-packed 2023 as it tackled the scrapping of tax benefits for debt fund investors and surging flows into equity funds.
Global trends, macroeconomic data announcements and the start of the earnings season would be the major drivers for the equity markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Equity markets will remain closed on Thursday for Eid-Ul-Fitr. Trading activity of foreign investors, rupee-dollar trends and crude oil prices would also guide trends in markets.
In a data-packed week, the domestic macroeconomic figures -- industrial production and inflation numbers -- along with global trends would dictate trends in the equity market this week, analysts said. According to experts, markets may face volatile trends due to high valuations. Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty hit their fresh record peaks on Thursday. Besides, trading activity of foreign investors, movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar trend would also influence trading in equities.
'Like every Budget, this time, too, there is chatter around tinkering with the long-term capital gains tax.' 'Investors may not want to jump into the markets until there is clarity on this front.'
Minutes of the MPC meeting show Das felt economy needs more monetary stimulus as inflation outlook remains uncertain.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday revised upwards the GDP growth projection for the current fiscal to 7.2 per cent from 7 per cent on rising private consumption and revival of demand in rural areas. Unveiling the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said estimates released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) placed India's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 8.2 per cent in 2023-24. "During 2024-25 so far, domestic economic activity has maintained resilience," he said, adding that manufacturing activity continues to gain ground on the back of strengthening domestic demand.
S&P Global Ratings on Monday kept its forecast for India's economic growth unchanged at 6 per cent in the fiscal year starting April 1, before rising to 6.9 per cent in the following year. In the quarterly economic update for Asia-Pacific, S&P saw inflation rate easing to 5 per cent in 2023-24 fiscal, from 6.8 per cent in the current financial year. It saw India's gross domestic product (GDP) likely growing by 7 per cent in the current financial year ending March 31 (2022-23), before slowing to 6 per cent in the next 2023-24 fiscal.
Govt to strongly pitch for better rating, to argue India has successfully weathered its problems and govt capacity on growth remains high.
'The noise that we are hearing is because the five big IT players are not hiring significantly.'
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday raised the benchmark lending rate by 50 basis points to 5.40 per cent to tame inflation.
The embattled Adani Group on Monday attempted to calm the market as a rout in its shares continued, saying its growth plans are intact, business plans are fully funded and it remains confident of delivering returns to shareholders. Market value of the group's seven listed companies has halved since a January 24 report by US-based short-seller Hindenburg Research alleged that Adani pulled "the largest con in corporate history" using offshore tax havens and stock manipulation. The Group has denied all allegations, calling them "malicious", "baseless" and a "calculated attack on India".
'It's a debatable topic, and we will submit our comments to the RBI by June 15.'
India, along with Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia, is expected to sustain growth in the medium-term in Asia region, replacing China as the key growth driver, Morgan Stanley and Nomura said in two separate reports released on Monday. While Morgan Stanley projected a 6.2 per cent gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for India in FY24, Nomura estimated the Indian economy to grow at 5.9 per cent in 2023. "Even with a slowing China, we expect GDP growth in Asia to sustainably outperform other emerging markets and the US. India and Southeast Asia are set to be the fastest-growing economies this decade.
P V Subramanyam clears some misconceptions about debt funds.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday slashed India's growth forecast for 2022-23 (FY23) by 80 basis points to 7.4 per cent, citing less favourable external conditions and rapid policy tightening by the central bank. In its update to the April World Economic Outlook, the IMF said that though a global recession in 2022 was ruled out with a growth estimate of 3.2 per cent, the balance of risks was squarely to the downside, driven by a wide range of factors that could adversely affect the global economic performance. "The risk of recession is particularly prominent in 2023, when in several economies growth is expected to bottom out, household savings accumulated during the pandemic will have declined, and even small shocks could cause economies to stall.
'They can transition from short to long-duration funds when the yield curve normalises.'
High-end apartments, penthouses, and bungalows boasting amenities like swimming pools, expansive driveways, and premium interiors are becoming highly sought after.
'Historically, the markets tend to perform well during election years as governments aim to increase spending and call attention to growth.'
'The slide in growth has arisen primarily because we have an NBFC crisis on top of a banking crisis,' points out T T Ram Mohan.
Moody's, which cut its FY14 growth estimate to 4.5 per cent recently, said economic growth will be lowest in a decade.
'With a solid investment programme and sustainable development strategy, India can exceed 7 per cent growth per year, or a doubling of high-quality national income within a decade.'
'These are the two core skill sets that are required for any job, in any profession.'
'China is struggling to get out of its property bubble.' 'Japan took 35 years to walk out of its equity bubble.' 'Bubbles can be difficult to forecast.'
Since the last nine years, gold investors have made money each year, while gains in silver have been consistent only in the last five years.
The Reserve Bank has told the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that the objective of frequent interventions in the forex market is to curb excessive volatility, dismissing the Fund's rationale for reclassifying India's exchange rate regime. The IMF, following the Article IV consultation with the Indian authorities, reclassified the status of the exchange rate regime to "stabilised arrangement" from "floating" for period between December 2022 to October 2023. India's Executive Director at IMF K V Subramanian and Senior Advisors Sanjay Kumar Hansda and Anand Singh questioned the selection period adopted by the Fund for analysis and also reclassification of the country's exchange rate regime.
Moody's on Monday upgraded India's local currency sovereign rating by a notch on the country's efforts toward fiscal reforms and the economy's capacity to face a crisis, a move that that will result in greater capital inflows and appreciation of rupee value.
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